Saturday, November 25, 2006

Conditions not right for civil war-Kamal Salibi

So my family went to pay their respects to The Gemayel's again. They went together, my Dad' brother and his wife, his sister and her son, and his other sister. Kamal Salibi also joined them. Salibi is a prominent Lebanese historian who wrote numerous books analyzing the civil war as well as other middle easter issues. Salibi said that the conditions here are night ripe for a civil war. In the lead up to the 1975-90 civil war, Christians wanted an independent Lebanon (among other things, but as a central tenet), Muslims wanted to do away with a Lebanese state and join a grater Arabia. On top of this, the Russians were arming the Palestinians as well as the Lebanese Communist Party and Ba'athist parties both which had a strong Shi'ite following, the Sunnis were using the Palestinians as their army and the Christians recieved their arms from the west and eventually Israel.
But now, the only sect with arms is Hezbollah, so how can there be a civil war?
Now all sects believe in an independent Lebanon, so there is no fight over that notion. But is Hezbollah a little too close to Iran to really look out for Lebanon's best interests?What do you think?

Also, updates for today. Prime minister Siniora decided not to hold a cabinet meeting today, which would have been unconstitutional since all the Shi'ite MPs resigned and the sect is not represented. He decided to appeal for the resigned MPs to rejoin cabinet:

From Naharnet.com
http://www.naharnet.com/domino/tn/NewsDesk.nsf/getstory?openform&08B60D66F597A178C2257231002C8360

And, Berri and Nasrallah just announced their support of the International tribunal to try those that are suspected in the Feb. 14, 2005 assassination of fromer PM Rafik Hariri. The related artcle's link isn't copying so I can't paste it here. Just click on the above link and look at the box to the right of the article, which lists other available articles. Click on the one "Nasrallah, Berri Support Tribunal, Renew Threats of Protests."

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