And the Gemayel conspiracies set in

As good Lebanese, ever person is now constructing their conspiracy theories around the Pierre Gemayel death. Here are some I've heard:

AMERICA DID IT: The U.S. decided to get rid of Pierre Gemayel to put further pit Lebanon against Syria, forcing Syria into the international spotlight pressuring it to clean up its ways. Benefits: possibly more cooperation in Iraq? This theory, as I heard it, didn't seem to have much of a backbone. (If anyone had a anything to add to this conspiracy, and any others, let me know)

SYRIA DID IT: This is popular with the March 14 forces because it also implies that Hezbollah/Aoun colluded, in the 'guilty by association' sense for the former's support of Syria and the latter's willing to work with Hezbollah. The Kaetaeb has been a traditional Syrian foe and one of the first to unwaveringly call for Syrian withdrawal. Why not get rid of their greatest foe? Also strikes a blow to Christian powers as they were the only faction to demand from the begining of Lebanon's inception to the present-day, that Syria must let Lebanon achieve its full independence (though Syria didn't occupy Lebanon till 1976, they were always meddling in it's business before). See 'Aoun/Hezbollah did it' (below) for another reason why Syria may have done it.

AOUN/HEZBOLLAH DID IT: By assasinating Pierre and attempting to assasinate Michel Pharoun the government would fall. Pharoun is a protestant minister who was also targeted in a failed assasination attempt that day. The government would fall for lack of ministers to legally run it. Due to the 3 hezbollah, 2 Amal and the one Christian minister (a Syrian ally) that resigned, if two more ministers either resigned or are assassinated, the government would not have enough ministers to continue to function (according to the constitution). This would lead to elections and possibly augment Hezbollah and Aoun power in the government.


ISRAEL DID IT: I've heard it said, but I haven't heard why.

MARCH 14 FORCES DID IT: Why eliminate one of their own? This one gets complicated and needs some major explanation. Gemayel was 'the weakest link' and the Kaetaeb is the weakest party of the major three Christian factions (which go, in order of most support: Aoun, Geagea and Gemayels. Aoun for the Free Patriotic Movement, Geagea, the Lebanese Forces and Gemayel's the Kaetaeb party). The incentive to kill Pierre is:
a) Hezbollah was going to go out and demonstrate in the streets on Thursday, to demand a third of parliament's cabinet seats, which would give them veto power. The March 14 forces said, "no, let's have the vote on the international tribunal first, then you'll get your third.' The international tribunal refers to the Hariri killings-- Syria is most suspect in the slaying of the former prime minister. The March 14 feared that if Hezbollah recieved veto power through their seat number boost, they'd veto the tribunal. Hezbollah refused this deal, and their three ministers resigned, then the Amal party, with two seats, followed suit. This left no representation of Shi'ites in cabinet, which makes it constitutionaly illegal to vote on legislation without all sects being represented. As March 14 only voted to approve the international tribunal after the Shi'ite ministers resigned, the decision is legally nixed. Now that Hezbollah cannot protest on Thursday (for respect for the Gemayel family and they'd be accused of inciting sectarian violence) they've affectively been neutralized. Hezbollah's ability to mobilize its population is feared, as they are the biggest party in Lebanon (though due to gerrymandering and not having a national consensus since the 1930's, it makes it seem otherwise). If Hezbollah mobilized on Thursday, the weak government (which is March 14 party) would have had to kowtow to such great pressure. This would be one reason to do away with Pierre, to stop the protests and ensure that Hezbollah doesn't get veto power.

b) Another reason is to push the international tribunal forward. The momentum for the international tribunal was dying. March 14 were the only ones vehmently pushing it. Pierre's death is a reason to start a renewed push to implement the tribunal. March 14 may use it by saying something like, "If we don't push for this tribunal, Hariri's killers will not be held accountable, which gives a greater incentive to slay other politicians. Pierre's death attests to this fact. A tribunal is needed to put an end to these deaths."

c) The Kataeb is a weak party. Aforementioned, it's the weakest of the big 3 christians factions. Pierre was also a weak politician, who was young and not a mover and a shaker. So March 14 decided to assassinate him because he was dispensable. Whomever assumes the reins of the kataeb party will not break with the March 14 party, so effectively, the party isn't losing much due to his death. This assertion is interesting because it does make you ask: why was Pierre, who was really one of the weakest of the March 14, assassinated? If someone, a country or a party, wanted to strike a blow to the March 14 forces, they would have targeted a bigger figure. If you don't agree with the assertion that Pierre was weak, ask yourself: why was he in a flimsy Kia car that had no bullet-proof glass and he only had two body guards? Other March 14 figures like Walid Jumblatt, Saad Hariri and Geagea all have sturdy cars that have bullet-proof glass and have an entourage of body guards. When they move around the city, a security convoy follows them. Why wasn't the same protection awarded to Pierre?

That's all the conspiracy theories I've heard. Want to add one? Write a comment. Either way, don't chew my head off--I'm not supporting any of these, I'm reporting what I've heard.